27
July 2023
Before the Russia-Africa summit starting today, the Western powers had exerted massive pressure on the African states to cancel their participation altogether or at least not to be represented by their heads of state and government in Saint Petersburg. The aim was to make progress in the hitherto futile effort to isolate Russia beyond the Western world. For example, Félix Tshisekedi, President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, had reported that the United States and Great Britain had conveyed "the message" to Kinshasa that it was "not a good idea" to participate in the summit. 1] Tshisekedi has now cancelled his trip at short notice on Monday. Although he claims that he did not act under pressure, but only at the opening of the Jeux de la francophonie on the 28th. July in the Congolese capital. However, the date has been known for a long time. Apparently dissatisfied with being pressured by the West, Tshisekedi also canceled his planned trip to Kiev, which he wanted to visit immediately before the summit. The government of the DR Congo expresses a growing degree of displeasure with the West. Her Foreign Minister, Christophe Lutundula Apala, declared at the beginning of June that since the West is not ready to open paths to peace and prosperity, the BRICS alliance should now create "a new international order." 2]
The results of the massive Western pressure are mixed. On the one hand, it was said yesterday in Moscow that 49 of all 54 African states would be represented with their own delegation in Saint Petersburg. On the other hand, the Russian presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov announced that President Vladimir Putin expects only 21 heads of state and government - only about half of the 43 heads of state and government who had come to Sochi for the first Russia-Africa summit in October 2019. Although the heads of state and government of some regional heavyweights participate in the meeting, including the presidents of South Africa, Egypt, Senegal and Ethiopia. Nevertheless, Moscow had hoped for more. On the causes of the lower participation, Murithi Mutiga, program director of the International Crisis Group responsible for Africa, says that it is "not a good idea" to stand with the Russian president "if so many countries probably need financial support and bailouts in the next few years." 3] It is striking that Zambia's President Hakainde Hichilema does not participate in the summit, although he had only traveled to Moscow in mid-June as part of an African peace mission. Zambia is extremely in debt, was only able to achieve a debt rescheduling in June and is dependent on Western benevolence.
One of the main topics of the summit will be the supply of cereals and fertilizers to the African continent. Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal with Ukraine has been registered by the African Union (AU) with "regrets" and with recognizable criticism. 4] Although Kiev only supplied a smaller part of its grain to African countries, some of them obtained significant quantities of their supply from there. In addition, the grain price, which initially remained reasonably stable after Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal, has soared with the destruction of Ukrainian port facilities, which has extremely serious consequences for Africa. The announcement from Moscow to replace failed Ukrainian grain deliveries will be negotiated at the summit. There is also a Russian proposal for discussion to provide the African states with state-of-the-art agricultural technologies and to provide them with the necessary know-how for their application. The construction of factories on the African continent, in which parts of fertilizer production could be realized, is also conceivable. 5] The measures are of some importance for Berlin and the West not only because their success depends on whether Moscow can consolidate its influence in Africa. They also require the ability to circumvent the Western sanctions; if they succeed, the sanction sword becomes dull.
In Saint Petersburg, at least for some African states, the future presence of Russian military personnel as well as private Russian military companies, including Wagner, will be of importance. Thus, the President of the Central African Republic, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, and Mali's interim President Assimi Goïta will be present at the summit in person. Their states are the focus countries of Russian military activities on the African continent. 6] The presence of the interim president of Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré, is also expected.[ 7] Although Burkina Faso has thrown the French armed forces out of the country and is politically approaching Moscow, it has so far been trying to do without military support from Russia in the bloody fight against jihadist insured insurers. On the other hand, the UN force MINUSMA must also withdraw from Mali by the end of the year; thus, the Bundeswehr will also leave the country earlier than planned after a ten-year deployment. In the West, after the coup attempt by "Wagner" boss Yevgeny Prigoschin, the hope had arisen that Moscow could be forced to withdraw the "Wagner" mercenaries from their areas of operation in Africa. This is not the case; rather, it is said that "Wagner" will focus on his activities in Africa in the future. 8]
For the Western states, this is a bitter setback; they will be mainly dependent on Niger for their military activities in the Sahel in the future (german-foreign-policy.com reported [9]). In addition, NATO is expanding its cooperation with Mauritania. At the end of June, the commander of the country's military academy, General Dah Sidi Mohamed El Agheb, attended talks at the Brussels NATO headquarters to discuss future cooperation with the Western military alliance in the Sahel. 10] NATO is said to attach great importance to joint activities in northern Africa.[ 11] Mauritania is one of the countries whose heads of state will not participate in the Russia-Africa Summit; President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani had initially promised, but had announced in the short term that he would not come.[ 12] He is represented by the Prime Minister of Mauritania, Mohamed Ould Bilal Messoud.
[1] RDC : pourquoi Félix Thisekedi n'ira pas en Ukraine et en Russie. rfi.fr 25.07.2023.
[2] BRICS considers expanding bloc, meets 'friends'. thedailystar.net 02.06.2023. See the BRICS alliance as an alternative.
[3] Max Seddon, David Pilling, Joseph Cotterill: Russia hits out at west for pressing African leaders to miss St Petersburg summit. ft.com 26.07.2023.
[4] L'Union africaine « regrette » la sortie de la Russie de l'accord céréalier. jeuneafrique.com 19.07.2023.
[5] Estelle Maussion: En Afrique, la Russie pousse aussi ses engrais. jeuneafrique.com 18.07.2023.
[6] S. on this "Not leaving Russia" and On the way to independence.
[7] Russie-Afrique: Macky Sall, Assimi Goïta, Denis Sassou Nguessou... Qui sera au sommet ? jeuneafrique.com 25.07.2023.
[8] Comment Wagner compte se recentrer sur l'Afrique. lejournaldelafrique.com 21.07.2023.
[9] S. The last bastion in the war zone (III).
[10], [11] John Hill: Nato strengthens co-operation with Mauritania and the Sahel region. army-technology.com 05.07.2023.
[12] Russie-Afrique: Macky Sall, Assimi Goïta, Denis Sassou Nguessou... Qui sera au sommet ? jeuneafrique.com 25.07.2023.